Premier League Gameweek 5 Results & P/L Review

Gameweek 5 is now complete, with all six published Fish & Tips football bets settled.

Using a consistent £10 example stake per published bet, the week returned £00.00 from £60.00 staked, leaving an overall example loss of £60.00.

Gameweek 5 P/L

After a weekend of surprises in the premier league, this weekend has ended with a total of -6 points from the published bet-slips with 3 of the bet builders losing out by 1 selection.

Brentford vs Chelsea

Four of our five selections landed, with Chelsea failing to score the only leg that let us down.

Chelsea had scored 10 goals in their opening four Premier League matches, finding the net in every game and averaging 2.5 goals per match. Their attacking form gave us a reasonable statistical basis for including over 0 goals.

The Blues registered 12 shots against Brentford, although only two were on target. Despite enjoying approximately 60% possession, they couldn’t find the breakthrough and ultimately lost 3–0.

With all four player-stat selections landing, Chelsea’s failure to score was particularly frustrating.

There was an element of misfortune given Chelsea’s previous scoring record, although their modest expected-goals figure and João Pedro’s absence are important factors to consider when reviewing our original analysis.

Brighton vs Arsenal

Arsenal went into the game having won all four of their opening Premier League matches, scoring eight goals and finding the net in every fixture. That gave us a reasonable basis for including Arsenal over 0 goals. They also registered 11 shots, six corners and two big chances against Brighton, but couldn’t find a breakthrough. Brighton’s pressing caused Arsenal problems throughout, and the hosts ran out convincing 3–0 winners.

Our other missed selection was Gabriel Magalhães to have 1+ shot. It was particularly frustrating because Gabriel’s shot was also in the Gameweek 5 acca, so the same missed selection affected two separate bets. The other three legs all landed: De Cuyper committed a foul, Havertz had a shot on target and Saka won a foul.
There was some misfortune in Arsenal failing to score despite creating chances, but Brighton’s performance means we can’t put this result down to luck alone. We’ll revisit whether Gabriel’s shot and the Arsenal goal were sufficiently strong selections for this particular matchup.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Both fouls-committed selections landed, with Dominik Szoboszlai and Adam Smith delivering the required foul. Unfortunately, neither Marcus Tavernier selection came in as Bournemouth lost 1–0 to Liverpool.

Tavernier failed to register a shot on target or win a foul, leaving us two legs short. Unlike the Chelsea builder, where one missed goal cost us, both losing selections here depended on the same player.

That gives us a clear point to investigate: did Tavernier’s recent statistics and expected matchup justify including both markets? We’ll review his shooting opportunities and fouls-won record rather than putting this one down to bad luck.

Leeds vs Palace

All three shooting selections came in. Dominic Calvert-Lewin registered a shot on target, while Ao Tanaka and Tarik Muharemović both recorded a shot. Unfortunately, neither of our fouls-won selections landed, leaving the builder two legs short.

Jayden Bogle and Muharemović both failed to win a foul. Muharemović’s shot landed, but his foul-won selection didn’t, showing how two markets involving the same player can play out differently.

The shooting analysis delivered, but the fouls-won selections are the part we need to review. We’ll revisit the players’ recent records and whether their individual matchups unfolded as expected, rather than putting the misses down to bad luck.

Fulham vs Man United

Another frustrating near miss. Bryan Mbeumo registered a shot on target, while Harry Maguire and Joshua King both recorded the shots we needed. Oscar Bobb’s 1+ fouls won was the only selection that didn’t land, leaving us one leg short of a winning builder.

All three shooting selections came in, but Bobb’s missed foul won continued a pattern we’ve seen across Gameweek 5. We’ll review whether his recent fouls-won record and expected matchup gave us enough reason to include that leg, rather than simply putting it down to bad luck.

Gameweek 5 — Overall Review

Gameweek 5 finished without a winner from our six published bets, leaving an example loss of £60.00 from £60 staked.
There were some encouraging individual results: all six fouls-committed legs landed, as did 11 of our 14 shooting legs. However, the completed builders tell a different story. Three bets fell just one leg short, and the same missed Gabriel Magalhães shot cost us both the Brighton v Arsenal builder and the gameweek acca.

Fouls won was the clearest area to review, with four of six legs failing. Chelsea and Arsenal also both failed to score, costing us two team-goals selections. We need to revisit the original matchups and recent statistics behind those picks rather than assume they were simply unlucky.